turns-00052.parquet:31612
9ee56486edb00ec27f5f3019
turn 1/5gpt-4o-2024-08-06RussianRussia2288 words
degenerate_repetitionAbsentFinal dense release
USER
] Doubtless every era seems chaotic to the people who live through it, and the last decades of the twentieth century are no exception. It is as if Spaceship Earth daily encounters squalls, downdrafts, and wind shears as it careens into changing and unchartered realms of experience. Some¬times the turbulence is furiously evident as thunderclouds of war gather or the lightning of a crisis streaks across the global sky; but often the tur¬bulence is of a clear-air kind, the havoc it wreaks unrecognized until after its challenges have been met or its damage done. In seeking here to account for this turbulence in world politics and the changes that it both reflects and promotes, the analysis will focus on the underlying and enduring dynamics out of which daily events and current issues flow. Some of the dynamics are located at micro levels, where indi¬viduals learn and groups cohere; others originate at macro levels, where new technologies are operative and collectivities conflict; and still others derive from clashes between opposing forces at the two levels – between continuity and change, between the pulls of the past and the lures of the future, between the requirements of interdependence and the demands for independence, between centralizing and decentraliz¬ing tendencies within and among nations. While equating the turbulence of world affairs to stormy weather captures well the current human condition, its use here as a metaphor may divert from my larger purpose. The goal in identifying a hitherto un¬imaginable scheme is to facilitate empirical explanation rather than to provide poetic expression. What is needed is a conception of turbulence that denotes the tensions and changes that ensue when the structures and [p.439] processes that normally sustain world politics are unsettled and appear to be undergoing rearrangements. Turbulence is thus more than the commotion that accompanies shifts in major variables. Such fluctuations make up the day-to-day life of any system, be it social or meteorological. Just as shifts from cloudiness to showers to sunshine constitute normal weather patterns, so do electoral shifts from right to center to left or in¬dustrial shifts from high to moderate to low productivity form standard political and economic patterns, thereby allowing the analysis of such shifts to proceed by treating the system's boundaries as constant and the range within which the variables fluctuate as a measure of underlying stability. When the system's boundaries no longer contain the fluctua¬tions of the variables, however, anomalies arise and irregularities set in as structures waver, new processes evolve, outcomes become transitory, and the system enters a period of prolonged disequilibrium. These are the hallmarks of turbulence. Meteorologically, it appears in the form of hurricanes, tornadoes, tidal waves, droughts, and other "abnormalities" of nature that transform the terrain across which they sweep. Socially, it is manifested in technological breakthroughs, authority crises, consensus breakdowns, revolutionary upheavals, generational conflicts, and other forces that restructure the human landscape in which they erupt. It follows that uncertainty is a prime characteristic of turbulent poli¬tics. While the fluctuations of variables usually adhere to recognizable patterns, regularities disappear when turbulence sets in. At such times, the structures and processes of world politics enter a realm without prior rules or boundaries. Anything may happen, or so it seems, as demands are intensified, tensions exacerbated, relationships transformed, policy-making paralyzed, or outcomes otherwise rendered less certain and the future more obscure. Closely related to the uncertainties associated with political turbu¬lence is the pace at which it moves. Unlike conventional diplomatic or or¬ganizational situations, which evolve in the context of formal procedures, cautious bargaining, and bureaucratic inertia, those beset by turbulent conditions develop rapidly as the repercussions of the various partici¬pants' actions cascade through their networks of interdependence. Sus¬tained by the complexity and dynamism of diverse actors whose goals and activities are inextricably linked to each other, and facilitated by technologies that transmit information almost instantaneously, turbulent situations tend to be marked by quick responses, insistent demands, tem¬porary coalitions, and policy reversals, all of which propel the course of events swiftly if erratically along the fault lines of conflict and cooperation. Viewed in this context, it is not surprising that . . . protests and up¬risings [have] followed quickly upon each other in Soviet Armenia, the West Bank, Poland, Burma, and Yugoslavia, or that the same time span was marked by regimes being shaken up in the Soviet Union, Chile, Haiti, and Lebanon. Likewise, and no less conspicuous, [the world has] witnessed [p.440] cascades of cooperation: within weeks of each other, negotiations to end wars were initiated in Afghanistan, Angola, Central America, Cambodia, the Western Sahara, and the Persian Gulf. The winds of tur¬bulence, in short, can propel postinternational politics in many directions, through the world's diplomatic and legislative chambers, where com¬promises are reached, no less than through its streets and battlefields, where conflicts are joined. But how to extend the analysis beyond a suggestive metaphor? How to employ turbulence as a serious and systematic analytic concept that helps to account for the emergence of postinternational poli¬tics? . . . [A]n answer is found in the field of organizational theory, where the concept of turbulence is well developed and widely used. In particular, reliance is placed on a model of organizations that identifies turbulence as the condition they face when their environments are marked by high degrees of complexity and dynamism. In this formula¬tion, high complexity is not a synonym for events and trends that are diffi¬cult to understand. It refers, rather, to such an inordinate number of actors in the environment, and such an extensive degree of interdepen¬dence among them, that the environment is dense (rather than thin) with causal layers. This density is conceived to be so great as to enable any event to give rise to a restless commotion, which reverberates in fast-paced and unexpected ways throughout the environment and its diverse systems. When the dynamism of the environment is also high – i.e., when great variability marks the conduct of its actors – the interdependence of its many parts is bound to be greatly affected by the volatility that ac¬companies large-scale social transformations. It could be argued that high complexity and high dynamism are not new to world politics, that global wars, revolutions, and depressions re¬flect such conditions, and accordingly, that change has always been at work in world politics. In order to differentiate the familiar and common¬place changes from the profound kind of transformations that seem to be occurring today, one other attribute of political turbulence needs to be noted – namely, it involves parametric change. Only when the basic pa-rameters of world politics, those boundary constraints that shape and confine the fluctuations of its variables, are engulfed by high complexity and high dynamism is turbulence considered to have set in. Being bound¬aries, parameters are normally stable. They make possible the continui¬ties of political life, the ability of individual and collective actors to get from one day to the next and from one era to the next. Hence, when the orientations, skills, relationships, and structures that have sustained the parameters of world politics begin to crumble – i.e., when the complex¬ity and the dynamism of the parameters reach a point where the existing rules of conduct no longer serve to constrain behavior and outcomes – the course of events is bound to turn turbulent. Three dimensions of world politics are conceptualized as its main pa¬rameters. One of these operates at the micro level of individuals, one [p.441] functions at the macro level of collectivities, and the third involves a mix of the two levels. The micro parameter consists of the orientations and skills by which citizens of states and members of nonstate organizations link themselves to the macro world of global politics. I refer to this set of boundary constraints as the orientational or skill parameter. The macro parameter is here designated the structural parameter, and it refers to the constraints embedded in the distribution of power among and within the collectivities of the global system. The mixed parameter is called the relational one; it focuses on the nature of the authority relations that pre¬vail between individuals at the micro level and their macro collectivities. All three of these parameters are judged to be undergoing such a thoroughgoing transformation today as to bring about the first turbulence in world politics since comparable shifts culminated in the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648. At first glance, it doubtless seems excessive to argue that the turbulence of the present era is the first in more than three hundred years. Clearly, the history of most countries is marked by pe-riods of turmoil. As already noted, however, the claim being made here pertains to turbulence in the international system and not to the up¬heavals experienced within national systems, to the transformation of three specific parametric patterns and not to the commotion that attends the waging of wars or the fluctuation of economies. In the case of the struc¬tural parameter, the transformation is marked by a bifurcation in which the state-centric system now coexists with an equally powerful, though more decentralized, multi-centric system. Although these two worlds of world politics have overlapping elements and concerns, their norms, structures, and processes tend to be mutually exclusive, thus giving rise to a set of global arrangements that are new and possibly enduring, as well as extremely complex and dynamic. In the case of the relational pa¬rameter, the long-standing pattern whereby compliance with authority tends to be unquestioning and automatic is conceived to have been re¬placed by a more elaborate set of norms that make the successful exer¬cise of authority much more problematic, thus fostering leadership and followership conflicts within and among state and nonstate collectivities that can fairly be judged as amounting to a series of authority crises which, in both their pervasiveness and their scale, are new and global in scope. Lastly, at the micro level, the analytic skills of individuals have in¬creased to a point where they now play a different and significant role in world politics, a role which has intensified both the processes of struc¬tural bifurcation and the breakdown of authority relations. It is the simultaneity and interaction of these parametric changes that distinguish the present period from the previous three centuries. By vir¬tue of their newly acquired skills, people are more able and ready to question authority, and in turn the new authority relationships have facili¬tated the development of new, more decentralized global structures. But the causal flows also move from the macro to the micro level as the cen-tralized structures invite the formation of new authority relationships, [p.442] which then serve to refine further the skills and orientations through which individuals link themselves to their collectivities. Earlier eras have witnessed wars that shifted global structures from multipolar to bipolar foundations and revolutions that undermined the prevailing authority re¬lationships; but not since the seventeenth century have circumstances arisen in which the values of all three of these fundamental parameters underwent reinforcing realignments. на основе текста выше ответь на вопросы Какую исследовательскую задачу ставит перед собой Джеймс Розенау? На каких процессах он сосредоточил основное внимание? В чем состоит сущность введенного автором понятия «турбулентность»? В чем ключевое отличие турбулентных изменений от любых других? Каковы основные характеристики турбулентности? О наступлении какого этапа в развитии международных отношений свидетельствует турбулентность? Что автор понимает под «параметрами» мировой политики? Какой синоним из «арсенала» системных исследований можно привести к понятию «параметры»? О каких параметрах мировой политики говорит автор? Что происходит с параметрами, если система находится в состоянии турбулентности? Дайте пояснение из текста. ответы должны быть развернутые, вставляй цитаты из текста (но переведи их)
ASSISTANT
1. **Исследовательская задача Джеймса Розенау и сосредоточение внимания** Джеймс Розенау ставит перед собой задачу объяснить турбулентность в мировой политике и понять изменения, которые она как отражает, так и продвигает. Он сосредоточивается на "основных и устойчивых динамиках, из которых вытекают ежедневные события и текущие проблемы." Эти динамики "располагаются на микроуровне, где люди обучаются и группы объединяются; на макроуровне, где действуют новые технологии и коллективы конфликтуют; и возникают в результате столкновений противоборствующих сил на обоих уровнях - между преемственностью и изменением." 2. **Сущность понятия «турбулентность» и его отличия от других изменений** По мнению автора, турбулентность — это состояние, в котором "структуры и процессы мировой политики нестабильны и, кажется, претерпевают перестройки." В отличие от обычных колебаний систем, которые происходят в рамках стабильных границ и параметров, турбулентность характеризуется "параметрическими изменениями," когда основные ограничения системы разрушаются под влиянием высокой сложности и динамичности. 3. **Основные характеристики турбулентности** Ключевыми характеристиками турбулентности являются неопределённость и быстрый темп изменений. "Неопределённость является основной характеристикой турбулентной политики," так как "обычные закономерности исчезают в периоды турбулентности." Также автор отмечает, что "те, кто столкнулся с турбулентными условиями, развиваются быстро по мере того, как последствия действий участников проникают в их сети взаимозависимости." 4. **Этап в развитии международных отношений** Турбулентность свидетельствует о переходе на новый этап развития международных отношений — "переход на уровень постмеждународной политики." Это подразумевает "появление новых и, возможно, устойчивых мировых договорённостей," которые отличают нынешний период от предшествующих трёх веков. 5. **Понятие «параметры» мировой политики и их синоним** Автор понимает под "параметрами" основные ограничения, которые формируют и сдерживают колебания переменных в мировой политике. Синонимом в контексте системных исследований можно считать "структурные ограничения" или "ограничительные условия," так как параметры "обеспечивают преемственность политической жизни." 6. **Основные параметры мировой политики по автору** Автор выделяет три основных параметра: микропараметр (ориентации и навыки граждан государств и членов негосударственных организаций), структурный параметр (распределение власти среди коллективов глобальной системы), и реляционный параметр (характер отношений власти между индивидуумами и коллективами). 7. **Изменения параметров при турбулентности** При турбулентности параметры начинают претерпевать "такие трансформации, что это приводит к первой турбулентности в мировой политике за последние более чем триста лет." Это выражается в "бифуркации структурного параметра," "замене долгосрочных норм реляционного параметра," и "изменении аналитических навыков индивидуумов." Эти процессы приводят к возникновению новых, более децентрализованных глобальных структур и изменению отношений власти.